Sunday, 05 July 2020


A Analysis

GBP/USD: at the upper border of the range

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Current trend Today, Great Britain released positive Public Sector Net Borrowing statistics (-2.069 billion pounds from +8.636 billion earlier against the forecast of -1.9 billion). If Fed increases its interest rate by the year end, a "bearish" trend should return and the pair may fall to 1.4600 (year lows). US Manufacturing CPI for August is worth noting today (a growth is expected). If the actual data fits the forecast, US dollar should strengthen and the GBP/USD pair should decline as profitable positions are closed at the end of the week. Support and resistance Since July, the pair is trading within the range of 1.5690-1.5425; the breakout towards 1.5720 should have been the false one. The price is likely to remain between 1.5744 and 1.5400 until mid-September, when US interest rate decision is made. The middle line of the range is the zone between 1.5600 (38.2% Fibonacci) and 1.5500 (EMA144 on the daily chart); the balance line is at 1.5550 (EMA200, EMA50 on the daily chart). On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic are in the buy zone; while on the 4-hour chart, they are turning to sales. Support levels: 1.5650, 1.5600, 1.5550, 1.5500, 1.5425, 1.5350, 1.5230(23.6% Fibonacci). Resistance levels: 1.5690, 1.5775, 1.5900. Trading tips Open short positions from the level of 1.5670 with targets at 1.5650, 1.5620, 1.5600, 1.5565 and stop-loss at 1.5735. Place pending buy orders from 1.5740 with targets at 1.5775, 1.5800,1.5900 and stop-loss at 1.5680.  

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